Paul Krugman’s latest informal fallacy (UPDATED)

January 5th, 2009

Mr. Nobel talks taxation, but fails from the start:

Other things equal, public investment is a much better way to provide economic stimulus than tax cuts, for two reasons. First, if the government spends money, that money is spent, helping support demand, whereas tax cuts may be largely saved. So public investment offers more bang for the buck. Second, public investment leaves something of value behind when the stimulus is over.

First, there’s not only nothing wrong with saving, despite Krugman’s apparent disdain for the concept. But you might also ask yourself why the average citizen would be willing to save when 1) interest rates are back at historical lows; 2) the stock market is running on fumes; and 3) they are sitting on piles of debt they need to pay down. Then ask why Krugman fails to mention that debt repaid is now a credit line re-accessible - you really don’t think people (or businesses) will shun pulling out their plastic again, do you?

Second, public investment leaves something else behind besides value “when the stimulus is over” - items the prize winner also omits - they are commonly referred to as 1) a pile of debt your children will be responsible for, and 2) massive legacy costs your children will be responsible for. Public projects need ongoing support (which rarely materializes - just ask Jimmy Carter or the Afghan Mujahideen of the ’80s) - pumping massive amounts of money into willy-nilly temporary job creators will have significant long-term repercussions. Of course, you need not worry about what might happen after the next election, or the next round of Nobel prize voting.

I’m still trying to figure out what “other things equal” means, besides a weasiley way of saying “my medal affords me some magical interpretation of the situation you can’t possibly fathom.” I loathe the effort that may be required to succeed in that particular quest for enlightenment.

UPDATE: A more salient discussion on tax cuts as stimulus.

Trout Underground’s Tom Chandler to be Knighted by Queen of England

January 5th, 2009

Ominous times indeed

Moldy Chum reports:

The kingpin of the Trout Underground Writer’s Network has been named “The World’s Greatest Business Mind”, and with geopolitical and economic strife on everyone’s short list rumor has it Mr. Tom Chandler will soon be addressing the UN General Assembly.

The Chum has more. Meanwhile, my personal take on all this…

While Mr. Chandler certainly leads a venerable team that can solve all the world’s problems, too much power in too few hands means many will soon suffer from planned indicator shortages. Don’t believe the empty promises - nymphing will be swiftly outlawed! This anointment should come as no surprise either - the TUWN has been propagandizing its impending global domination for nearly three years, and watching everyone so closely as to make George Orwell posthumously gleeful.

I’ll cautiously congratulate, toss streamers as often as possible, and seine my preferred waters for surveillance devices from here on out. I’d also warn beginners to the sport of fly fishing to keep looking over their shoulders, but they probably already have that covered.

Colorado fishing folk have reason to rejoice in 2009

January 2nd, 2009

If you woke up from your New Year’s hangover, immediately reached into your vest, found your fishing license expired, and thought “damn, I spent that thirty bucks, and then some, at the bar the last night”, there’s no need to worry. You can fish on that 2008 license until March 31st.

That’s three free months of fishing, so you can safely head back to the bar with delusions of fiscal responsibility dancing in your head. California licensees only wish they were so lucky.

AEG Media boys to star in Hollywoodland II

January 2nd, 2009

Moldy Chum broke the news - the stars of fly fishing porn production house AEG Media have bailed on their mob contracts. Nobody has found a living room filled with broken bamboo and someone hanging dead in a closet via 7X tippet…at least not yet.

It’s a veritable three-ring circus of intrigue over at the Drake forums. And rumor has it the Buster Wants To Fish gang will be taking their place in the spotlight in the upcoming Survival: Spey by the Case (of Stella).

Q & A with Fly Casting Instructor David Phares

January 1st, 2009

Brought to you by the International Sportsman’s Exposition (1). There are details at the end of this post regarding how you can get some free tickets to the ISE Sportman’s Show in San Mateo, CA, January 8th - 11th, but you have to learn how to cast a fly rod first. So read on.

David Phares is an avid fly fisherman and professional casting instructor from Chandler, AZ, who will be making presentations (pun intended) at the upcoming ISE event. He agreed to do an email interview here for the benefit of those who won’t be in the Bay area a week hence, and despite the significant harm that might befall his outstanding reputation as fly-rodder and teacher by remotely associating himself with the blog of someone who has hit more inanimate objects (and fellow humans) with flies than any other person on earth (2).

Here you go folks, now get to learning…

MICHAEL: I’m sure you meet a lot of folks that are picking up a fly rod for the first time ever. Knowing casting a fly line is a fairly complex action, what do you stress in lesson number one that gets the beginner on the water quickest?

DAVID: We are most interested in making sure that student has a good time, and sees some success. While this is not rocket science, it is a matter of physics, so we make sure they understand the physics of making a piece of string go flying through the air, dragging a fly. If the student does not enjoy the experience of learning the sport, they will not carry on with it. The learning has to be fun.

MICHAEL: Professional golfers practice daily - as a result there are always plenty of everyday people on the ranges trying to emulate their discipline. Fly fishers don’t really have a Tiger Woods to copy, and there aren’t casting ponds in every suburb either. So what can fly fishers do to keep their casting stroke in top form?

DAVID: Just like Tiger, you PRACTICE. Only you have to make sure that what you are practicing is correct. It is too easy to practice bad habits. With fly casting it is not hard to know when you are doing it right as the fly line shoots out there and lands where you want it to. Also, we encourage target practice, as just throwing line is only half the task - you have to put the fly in the right place in order for the fish to take it. This can be accomplished with a couple of paper plates with a big nail holding them down out in the park or a retention basin just down the street. You do not need water to practice, except for the roll cast, that is, and I have done that in an irrigation ditch.

MICHAEL: I think one point that is probably on the mind of every fly fisher, particularly as belts tighten, is how important equipment really is. Is the choice of rod and reel purely personal taste, or has your experience dictated particular types of gear for fly casters at different levels of proficiency?

DAVID: One of the things that has always amazed me it that even a novice can tell the difference between a really good rod with top-flight line, and a “Yugo” of the fly fishing world. A top flight rod and high quality line make all the difference in the learning curve and success for the beginner. The choice gets harder with the fact there are some really nice fly rods out there that are selling now for under $200, where in the past you had to spend twice that to get a good rod. The rod and line are the critical parts of the system, for sure.

The secret is to find the rod and line that work for you. Go to the fly shop and cast them until you find what works. I have a good friend with whom I fish and he uses a rod that casts like a broom for me. He loves it. What can I say?

MICHAEL: As fly fishing has progressed in popularity over the last couple of decades, we’ve seen people chasing wider and wider varieties of species, and with that comes an expanding breadth of equipment as well as casting technique. Are there any basic rules of thumb fly-rodding enthusiasts need to know that can help them ease the transition from say, hauling Crazy Charlies in strong winds to nymphing in a tiny freestone?

DAVID: What the hell is a “Crazy Charlie?” No, seriously, the secret is to spend some time learning about the fish you are going after. Each species has its own set of challenges. With this rapid growth in fly fishing has come a wide assortment of books and articles (both hard copy and on the net) about fly fishing for just about anything that swims. And, you never want to ignore good old “local knowledge.” Ask at the fly shop, or go to a meeting of a local fly club and ask around. Most fly fishers are little John the Baptists at heart, and they would love to share what they know with you.

MICHAEL: You live in Phoenix, and there aren’t a lot of trout streams or tarpon migrations running through there. Assuming you do a lot of destination travel, where’s your favorite place to fish? And, considering that casting a big rod all day, every day, during a planned outing can be physically arduous, how do you, personally, keep yourself prepared?

DAVID: I just wish I traveled as much as I would like. Actually Arizona is a fly fisher’s paradise, as we can fish year-round for a wide variety of species, and we are located pretty close to some great destinations, as well. While I fish locally as often as I can, I do love to travel and fish both South Padre Island on the South coast of Texas for redfish, snook and sea trout; and I try to get the Norfork and White Rivers in Arkansas each year as well.

MICHAEL: Back to the golf bit… Golfers in medium to low handicap ranges periodically take on the advice of the club pro to help them adjust their swing and (hopefully) knock a few strokes off their game. Do professional fly casting instructors do the same for their clients? And if so, what are the corrections you most often target in the intermediate to advanced fly caster’s method?

DAVID: One of the biggest mistakes beginners make is to bypass good instruction. The Federation of Fly Fishers, local Trout Unlimited clubs and local fly shops can all provide that kind of start for the beginner. For years we taught hundreds of novices in our local parks and recreation programs.

As for the intermediate and advanced casters, there is probably a second opinion on this, but I feel “if it works don’t fix it.” Going back to golf for an example, I would never try and teach a new golfer to try and swing like Arnold Palmer, but that ugly swing worked for him. If the caster can get the fly where he or she wants it most of the time, I would be loath to try and make his cast look a little prettier by tampering with it.

MICHAEL: Besides receiving professional casting instruction (and tying flies until their eyes are crossed), what else can fly fishing enthusiasts do to improve their ‘game’? Do you have any book, video, or other instruction-related materials you’d recommend?

DAVID: Hey, I have been tying flies for years, and my eyes are not crossed! They might be a bit fuzzy some times, but not crossed.

One of the really unique aspects of the sport is that it offers so many different ways to enjoy it. In addition to the actual fishing for everything from bluegill to great white sharks, and as you mentioned tying flies, you can also take a class in rod building; [additionally] spend time on the internet researching destinations and chatting with locals in diverse areas on what it takes to get there, where to stay, and what is the best guide in the area. For me, the planning of a trip as always been almost as much fun as the going. I am blessed, too, with three really good guys with whom I fish, and they add a great deal to the enjoyment of fly fishing for me. Fly fishing is a social event for me. And, I am just now introducing two of my grandsons to the sport as well. It is just getting better and better every year.

MICHAEL: Have you ever had a beginner get so aggravated they break a rod over their knee? What rod would you recommend for such folks?

DAVID: I have never had a student with that kind of a temper, but I have had some that just could never quite “get it.” However, I have seen guys on a golf course do that, so maybe it says something about fly fishing vs. golf!

When we teach casting we are always on the lookout for those who seem to come to casting naturally, and we move them up to better rods when we see that. As for the poor guy who continues to struggle (we have never had a woman who could not learn to cast - even some seniors do quite well), then we might suggest after repeated sessions they may want to stick to bowling. As much as I love fly fishing, it is not for everyone. We owe to the beginner who trusts us to be honest with them. I do not sell equipment, so that may be easier for me than a shop owner, but they have to do it, too.

MICHAEL: I know you haven’t seen me with rod in hand, but does your casting crystal ball tell you whether I will ever be able to toss a weighted crab pattern to a group of permit without spooking every single one?

DAVID: Michael, I may not have seen you cast, but the mere fact that you know that you have to cast that weighted crab a good distance to that school of permit tells me all I really need to know about your casting.

The single most important thing for every caster to remember is that must wait on the back cast and not start forward too soon, or you lose it all. That back cast is more important than the forecast, every time. Even experienced casters can get excited when they see that school of permit for the first time and forget that vital lesson.

MICHAEL: And finally, regarding all those folks out there who have accomplished the previously mentioned feat…where are the big dollar endorsement deals from American Express?

DAVID: When you find that out, send me a personal email, okay? The best I have done is that I have been lucky enough to have sold two fly patterns to Umpqua, and so I get a little check each quarter for my developmental efforts over the years. I doubt that you and I will ever be in Tiger’s league when it comes to the big bucks, but then that’s not why we take a rod in hand and hit the water, is it?

En how! We all now know that fly casting is one parts physics, two parts practice, and many parts fun. Problematic for me - back in the day I dropped Thermodynamics 101 in favor of accounting, I’d rather drink beer and watch college football than hit the park, and I only fly fish because it gives my friends the opportunity to razz me just before buying my lunch (ok, so that’s fun) - but there is still ample hope for the rest of you!

And now that everyone is a bit more informed, there are some free tickets to be had. The ISE is offering 10 passes to any of the four days of the San Mateo, CA event, and you can get up to two of them for yourself by leaving a comment below with your true name (so you can pick up your tickets at the will-call window), real email address (so I can confirm with you), and the simple announcement of the day you’d like to attend. It’s first come, first serve as usual. And anyone that would like to quiz Mr. Phares further while they’re there can find him at the Discover Fly Fishing booth or in the Fly Tying Theatre.


(1) Special thanks to the International Sportsman’s Exposition, Gilbert Fly-Fishing Programs, Spin Communications, and Chocolate Communications.

(2) While the editor’s flies have impacted with plenty of rocks, trees, and poling platforms, he has actually only hit one person other than himself. Fellow fly-fishing enthusiasts are, however, still welcome to scatter when he shows up on the water.

Taking this blog to new heights of petulance with Wordpress 2.7

December 31st, 2008

I’d barely gotten use to the 2.6 switch when a new version hit. The new automatic updating functionality kind of freaked me out (hence the delay), but since I’ve been tinkering with the code on this site since time immemorial I figured something was bound to break anyway. And much to my chagrin, nothing did (at least on upgrade), which means I’m forced to do real work, the lure of a winter fishing day notwithstanding.

The new WP dashboard is outstanding - everything is laid out much more intuitively, and the ability to reorganize said layout (along with the rest of the back end interface) only adds to the ease of use. I’ve enabled OpenID commenting too. I was hankering for OpenID some time ago (enough to even pay for it), and just hadn’t had the time to seek out the latest release.  I haven’t installed XRDS-Simple yet so I’m still using a third-party OpenID provider, but frankly I’m astounded that server functionality even exists - Will and Chris have done one hell of a job with the plug-in. Thanks guys.

Have a safe and happy new year.

Happy Birthday to Roughfisher

December 30th, 2008

Brownliner extraordinaire Jean-Paul Lipton is old cold, very old cold.

Probably not as old as this guy though. Billy who? Classic.

“MD5 considered harmful today”

December 30th, 2008

Harmful yesterday too

An absolutely awesome presentation on the weaknesses in the public key infrastructure (that which purportedly makes secure websites safe)…

The vulnerability we expose is not in the SSL protocol or the web servers and browsers that implement it, but in the Public Key Infrastructure. This infrastructure has applications in other areas than the web, but we have not investigated all other possible attack scenarios. So other attack scenarios beyond the web are conceivable, such as in the areas of code signing, e-mail security, and in other areas that use certificates for enabling digital signatures or public key encryption.

Use SHA-1, you say? Heh, folks are already working on SHA-3, and I doubt it is because they’re bored.

Still, great work on something that was long held theoretically possible. I don’t think miscreants will bother with such heavy lifting though - a colleague of mine noted they can just get a garbage cert, or a more authoritative one for a garbage website name (i.e. a misspelling), and roll the dice. It’s our impression that most of the technical exploits also require screwing with DNS, and we’d love to hear more on whether that’s truly the case.

Recession Survival Tip #591: Take Care of Your Fly Rods

December 30th, 2008

If you still have a few bucks around, I’m certain there are deals to be had. If you don’t, there’s no better time to take extra-special care of your gems.

I’ve always been the type to give my rods a quick wipe-down after use; if they’re saltwater jobs, a warm, wet rag works overtime. Waxing the ferrules (tea-light candle wax is fine) after every couple of outings is also part of the repertoire. And my latest discovery was cork cleaning (with emphasis on ‘late’).

I have some rods that I’ve owned for a dozen years, and I’d never cleaned the handles. A friend said it was probably a bad time to start trying, particular since some of the corks were downright black - the suggestion was to start using the cheapo backups/loaners (the ones I’m loathed to cast myself - I call them my “guest handicappers”). But, a little warm water and some Soft Scrub with Bleach did the trick - here are the corks on the rods I’ve gotten wet in the last couple of years, after tidying them up…

The one at the top is the oldest in the quiver. I’ve had all the pure saltwater rods at least seven years, and they’ve all felt heavy use (i.e. lots of sunscreen) albeit prior to my move to Colorado. The second, third and fourth (from the top) have seen the most recent workouts - the second was bought early last season (’07) and the fourth was bought in late September (’08). All the corks now look the same - like I just pulled plastic wrappers off them.

Note: Your fishing buddies might already be getting stingy about sharing the single malt, and they’re going to be hard pressed to loan you their new S4 if your own rods look shabby too. So get scrubbing.