Michael Gracie

Let’s play a game – it’s called “How Much iPhone Buzz?” Click on this link, and then continually hit the refresh button. Blog chatter stats regarding the iPhone will fluctuate tremendously, but see how many articles you can actually get to come up. My best was +30 million:

A weakness with Google Blog Search? Or a reflection of what is actually going on regarding Apple’s latest product? It would be easy to say “who cares,” but that would be a cop-out – it is obvious a lot of people care. Fanboys care. Steve Jobs cares. Apple shareholders care. I’m firmly in the tactile keyboard (read: Blackberry) camp, and had better things to do than sit in front of an Apple store for a day waiting to buy a consumer product that would make me seem cooler than my friends. But alas, even I care.

Anyone watching, even cursorily, should care. Not about the iPhone, but about the buzz. What lessons can be learned from that?

UPDATE: Besides developing the perfect formula for generating such enormous marketing hype, there might be an opportunity for the contrarian…teaching consumers how to contain their enthusiasm until after the kinks are worked out. Nevertheless, I think the powers that be could have been more transparent regarding service subscribers on small business plans, as well as notifying folks that if they had a fraud alert on their credit report that the online activation process was a no-go.

UPDATE 2: Of course some ran out and bought the iPhone just so they could take it apart for the world. Traffic stats are bound to hit the ceiling there – is that what you call being part of a product launch marketing hype ecosystem? Maybe so.

Forbes just posted a graph showing the expanding gap between median home prices and median wages, based on data garnered from the National Association of Realtors and the Social Security Administration.

Now, a whizbang economist could probably enhance this analysis by commenting on the relative interest rates during the period (taken from Ibbotson), the rising mortgage and consumer credit levels (from the Federal Reserve), and even the balance of trade between the US and foreign countries (from the US Department of Commerce). He or she could go on and on about how the difference between the two elements means housing prices are primed for a severe downturn or we are headed for depression-era styled times. Others might expound upon the information as a sign that hard assets are the place to be, and the numbers reflect good times, particularly increasing wealth versus working hours.

I am no economist. I walk my dog around my neighborhood each morning and each evening. I see cars parked on the street in front of houses with large two car garages.

Based on my data I still thought the graph needed a little work:

I’ve got 5 invitations for the Freebase alpha test, if anybody wants one. Use the contact form to send me your email address, and I’ll forward one to you.

UPDATE: …or just comment with a valid email address, like the last, smarter than I, person did. There are four three two one none left. Sorry.

UPDATE 2: I’m glad I didn’t get into a real review of Freebase – Kristen Nicole that better. I’ll will point out that now that I “know” some people on it as a result of the invitations, it makes getting around in there a bit more interesting anyway, as in seeing what people are up to. As far as I can tell, folks seem to be embracing the platform for building knowledge bases on very niche topics, similar I guess to what happens at Wikipedia.

There is a lot more to being acquired than hiring a lawyer and pumping out a set of long-term projections. Deals fall down for unexpected reasons, and at times for reasons expected by the suitor but not by the target.

AskTheVC has started a series on the subject, and it begins like this:

Potential acquirers are typically trustworthy and sincere in their intent when conducting due diligence, with making an acquisition the goal rather than gathering competitive intelligence. However, some may enter the process with both goals, and a few may actually have bad intentions.

Fair enough.

If you’ve done dozens of deals and are now comfortably in the plus column (meaning collection of Ferraris in the garage), you might be thinking “I just throw a break-up fee in every term sheet to solve those types of problems.” Yes, economic incentive to close a deal does work, and the latter types of acquirers AskTheVC mentions will probably get turned away pretty quick if access to the deal is “priced” accordingly. Unfortunately, the budding startup jockey or middle market owner-operator rarely has the opportunity to install breakup fees. And don’t get so comfortable with your prized lawyer’s writing skills that you begin believing a bi-lateral confidentiality agreement is all you need either.

Rather than steal any thunder about to roll over the hills, I suggest you follow these guys over the next few days – you may learn something.

The raging controversy over Federated Media affiliates plugging Microsoft slogans into their blogs won’t end soon (at least until the next “scandal” breaks, that is).

I say everyone should grab a scotch, read the top ten blogger lies, and remind themselves that the average human being will never know “the conversation” even happened.

UPDATE: Dan Blank says have a popsicle instead.

The Wall Street Journal notes that the business.com domain could fetch $300 million for owners Jake Winebaum and Sky Dayton, on a $7.5 million initial investment. Meanwhile, everyone is poo-pooing the thing.

Assuming what the Journal says is true and the site is pulling in roughly $15 million in EBITDA…

Techdirt says “At this point, there’s a little more here than just a domain name, but it’s still hard to tell how much of a business business.com actually is.”

Meanwhile, a Wired reporter didn’t even seem to have read the story, when creating the title for criticism “Domain Madness: Business.com For $400 Million?“.

The list of goes on, but the point is clear: if you don’t have fifty AJAX “widgets” scattered across the site a designer charged you $250,000 to create and/or just announced a “lucrative business development relationship” with someone who does (even if they’ve blown through tens of millions in VC money and still don’t have a dime of revenue to show for it), your business is not worth two-cents. I will say that 20X EBITDA is a bit dear for a company growing 50% per annum, but still the context of the naysaying doesn’t get near this point.

You don’t have to look far to find simplicity hitting homers – Craigslist…Plenty of Fish; and if you still don’t get the idea, ask Kevin Ham out for lunch.

Beauty is skin deep, and elegance eventually trips on the runway. Meanwhile, ugly seems to be going to the bank.

UPDATE: Mike Arrington chimes in with a more credible tone, and a snack for thought.

Maybe calling Marc Andreessen an “internet guy” is putting it lightly – with all the big-name fanfare regarding his blogging exploits I say what the hell. You have to give credit where credit is due, and his latest is a doosie…turnaround tactics.

For the most part, it is politically incorrect. That generally means it’s all true and wholly justified and should be followed with fervor bordering on religious fanatism. Nonetheless, it’s an open source world and there are some classes and functions worth adding to:

“Identify the 3-5 things that are working surprisingly well in your business, and double down on those.”

I love the double-down concept. And, if you can find one thing working surprisingly well in a turnaround situation, call yourself lucky.

“Identify the 3-5 things that are consuming a lot of money and time and yet going nowhere, and kill those.”

That includes customers, with emphasis on the real pain-in-the-butt ones you know are only dealing with you to further some internal agenda of theirs.

“Look at the market, figure out 3-5 new areas in which your company is not currently playing or winning, but are clearly going to grow a lot — and acquire the best company in each of those areas.”

This is often not an option in distressed situations. Cash is king, and your equity is often valueless as acquisition currency.

“But first, throw your predecessor completely under the bus.”

Additionally, if you take this step and subsequently fall flat on your face, you can always run for public office.

Today must be National Bash Comcast Day.

Someone started a rant about Comcast’s poor service. Glenn Reynolds picked up on it and is now running a poll asking his readers to help him decide which service to switch to. Others are piling on.

How about turning off the TV for a bit and getting outside, eh?

I am a Comcast subscriber. A happy Comcast subscriber. I have the minimum cable TV subscription possible, and the only reason I turn on the TV is to keep the dog company when I’m out. Even that has competition, since the neighbors love taking him, and…

I keep a Mac Mini around as a backup computer, which also serves duty as a nightly server backup machine (with a neat little AppleScript/cron job combination) and as a stereo system (married to Bose Companions, all sitting on the fireplace mantle). I’m now piping Minnesota Public Radio through it during the day – that has elevated my already stupendous canine friend into the intellectual elite, with a combination of classical music and mixed talk (although frankly, my dog would probably bite me if he knew I was comparing him to the “intellectual elite”).

I find it hilarious that people are squawking about the fact that kids aren’t too keen on the outdoors anymore while simultaneously pissing and moaning about their cable service.

By the way, I also have a Comcast internet connection, and it screams. I’ve moved twice with it and always found the techs courteous and willing to work with someone who possesses a bit of technical know-how (like understanding how to get a connection through the modem without having to install software). They are always cool as cats as far as I’m concerned.

Maybe I get treated well by them because I loved getting dirty as a kid (and still do)?

Professional investors (particularly traders, with emphasis on the upper tier of commodities fund managers) know how to cut their losses, and they know how to double down on their winners as well. Entrepreneurs and business managers can certainly learn from this (myself included, as decision making has often been driven by curiousity and passion versus pure quantitative logic – and that’s coming from an accountant.

I have learned it can work for catching fish: Two days in a row, same spot, same rig…

Same fish (identified by two unmistakable white marks on his back).

I checked out this Lifelock hit job story with the initial intent of commenting on the company’s worthiness in the old Spamroll way, so I’ll follow that path first…

Lifelock provides credit services under the identity theft protection moniker. I discussed some of the methodologies for protecting your identity way back when, but failed to note that some of the ideas did require a lot of time and effort. Being that time is something a lot of people don’t have, that’s where Lifelock comes in. There is no secret sauce here, IMHO. But engineering fraud alerts etc. is a pain in the ass and getting your credit reports will cost you around $40 bucks, so if Lifelock is asking ten bucks a month and you are comfortable turning your personal information over to a third party, it is probably not a bad deal. Even if you cancel after you receive your reports, those fraud alerts remain in your file for seven years – it then becomes a really good deal. However, keep in mind that if you are an everyday Jane or Joe without a personal banker, using these tactics WILL make credit harder to come by even for yourself. Be prepared for hassles.

Nevertheless, I’ll give Lifelock a tentative thumbs up for those wanting for resources measured by the clock.

Mike Arrington is likely right – the email floated to him was a hit piece. The sale of personal information is big business, and the resulting opportunities are shrinking. Credit providers know that there are only two types of credit consumers left in the world – those that are tapped out and won’t get approval for more credit, and those that use credit so wisely (i.e. pay their balances in full almost every month) that they are for the most part unprofitable. Credit providers already know the secret of what to do with unprofitable customers (although their notion is to fee them to death until they just walk away). Either way, it is market for which truly qualified leads are drying up, and the automation of credit protection tactics reduces another link in the value chain.

That should have been the end of it, but the story continued.

On ValleyWag’s grave dancing…well I didn’t see the stuff as I don’t visit ValleyWag. Gossip is for Paris Hilton followers.

When all was said and done, Bessemer Ventures partner David Cowan showed everyone how to be a class act. He came to the defense of his investment’s founder with openess and conviction. VC’s have been known to make bets on the “eccentric” so there is the obvious need to cover one’s own behind too. Nonetheless, it was a sign of integrity and forthrightness rarely seen nowadays. If nothing else, kudos to Cowan…for having some balls.

UPDATE: What was Lifelock thinking? Maybe I gave them more credit than they deserved.