Monthly Archives: October 2007

I’d buy anything that was “enhanced”

Hilarious, particularly if you are a trader short yield…

The part about selling bundled mortgages to the next willing buyer is something I discussed long ago. Someone please call when they’ve figured out how to accurately price these securities, while their collateral tumbles in value.

(h/t to Marc Andreessen, via PK)

UPDATE: Hard to value the securities, but still little mention of exactly how inflated the collateral might be.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Jim Keegan says it:

“Take one example where the prospectus was 391 pages. Just think about it. You don’t even have to know anything about subprime. If it’s 391 pages, there’s a lot of risk in there, and if the loan-to-value ratio on second-lien loans was almost 100%, than you’re making a leveraged bet on real-estate values. And real estate was trading at 7 to 10 times median income.”

Yep.

The real estate bust in all its many colors

The graph has received some criticism, but I think it’s pretty cool:
caseshiller-time-jpg
Some will look at the metros on the lower end of the scale and think all is fine and dandy, but I don’t think that is the case. Abuse at the top end has severely effected the capital markets. Those on the lower end are likely to suffer not just because capital is less accessible to all, but also because alternative capital will soon be looking for perceived bargains in those areas that experience the greatest top to trough declines (whenever those troughs begin to appear, which may take serious time).

(h/t to The Big Picture)

Irony in AT&T customer service

I use a lot of SMS, and so do some of my friends (particularly the expatriates). Those SMS threads get long, and my Blackberry had been crapping out with Java exceptions. I drop into an AT&T store, and they give me two options: 1) go home, call customer service, and they’ll probably replace the phone, or 2) wipe the Blackberry and start over, hoping that would solve the problem. I couldn’t really do the latter in store without backing up some data, so I opted to try it from home first.

Last night I finally got around to syncing, and started the phone wipe. At first the menu remained, while a little submenu stated “Erasing” while displaying a little hourglass. Roughly an hour later, the phone’s still spinning, and I assume it’s just the screen locked because of another Java problem. I pull the battery and replace. Now, I’ve got a white screen with a spinning hourglass, and a network light blinking red. I watch that for another hour fifteen before I move to phase two.

The Service

I call AT&T, and meet the usual business customer care. They in turn transfer me to technical support, but not until after asking me what else they could do for me today. Of course, there isn’t a hell of a lot I can do when the phone is dead, so I decline any “additional support.” Upon transfer to tech, I sit on the phone for roughly 15 20 25 30 35 minutes, while the recorded message rolls through pitch after pitch. Interestingly, those offers are dispersed with messages that sound like they should be to the customer service rep. They say things like “Notify your customer that expected wait times are long, and reset their expectation” and “Have you upsold your customer for additional services?” That isn’t verbatim, but you get the idea – the transfer obviously didn’t go smoothly.

Eventually I get a technical support rep, and they have me take out the battery (again). Nothing works there, and I’m pushed to the warranty department (but I’ll qualify that that the tech support dude was pretty kind about it all). I’m now in the queue. 10 15 20 25 minutes pass before I get a human. The matter is “quickly” resolved – the Blackberry is under warranty and they are sending me a new one. In five to seven days.

The Irony

I left the phone sitting on my desk with that little hourglass spinning. I went out to walk the dog. I returned to the same.

Interestingly, a bit later the phone reboots – it’s now wiped and everything looks fine. My guess is the combination of password and content protection (i.e. encryption) and 1,000+ contacts, a full calendar, all my Entourage notes, etc. took a lot longer than anyone expected.

Despite being quite caring on the phone, if AT&T had taken another hour to answer in the first place, the problem would have been solved!

Epilogue

I called AT&T back to see if they could cancel the replacement – it isn’t happening. So, the replacement device goes right back where it came from (in five to seven days) unless those Java exceptions start reappearing again. And, despite all the commentary about how bad AT&T customer service is, my experience wasn’t bad at all. Yes, I was on hold for quite a while, but I did call in the evening (so that’s expected). Second, everyone was courteous…actually extremely pleasant. I got the feeling they were actually jumping through hoops for me. Maybe it’s my phone voice.

UPDATE: The Java errors returned almost immediately. And the next morning, my phone was back in white-screen/hourglass mode – I set it for automatic turnoff each evening, and it wakes with the alarm – the thing was obviously toast.

Sorry PR people: you’re blocked

Chris Anderson of Wired Magazine fame has blocked all harassment-level PR agents from his email inbox – and he’s published a list of their return email addresses for the world to see as well.

Funny, as professional harvesters will now be attacking them in droves. Many of the addresses on the list look like ‘no-reply’ buckets, so it’ll be a pain in the ass to change. But, I doubt this will be effective for Chris’s problem – now they’ll probably harrass him even more, and with a new address to boot.

I would have been silent on the matter, and dropped the list off to a bunch of blacklists instead.

Web 2.0 – Hype v. Innovation

There’s an interesting conversation that’s been taking place over the last twelve hours regarding recent innovations in the Web 2.0 space, or the lack thereof.

It started with John Heileman of New York Magazine taking a few swipes at the hype, which was quickly picked up after Fred Wilson made it clear some of the article got his goat. Steve Rubel followed up, and despite the fact that I’ve had a tough time following Mr. Rubel’s ramblings about Google Reader/Gmail as groundbreaking “research tools” yada yada, I have to give a general thumbs up to his prognosis – there is a lot of Kool-Aid hitting the gullet, and a dearth of “wow.” The few bright lights in the bunch are hardly world changing either – Twitter, for example, may be nifty, but as Richard McManus put it:

“Twitter, which Steve mentioned, is one – albeit it is still extremely niche and no mainstream people I know use it.”

My personal opinion: Twitter is a great platform, but Richard is spot on. I was skeptical at first, and then got an explanation. I embraced it, installing plugins for this blog, applets for my Blackberry, and Twitterific for the desktop. But Twitter is a social app, meaning you need your friends on it for it to be either fun or even remotely effective as a communications platform. Unfortunately, all my friends are those same mainstream kind of folks, and despite prodding some to join none saw any long-term value. Throw in the fact that I’m no groupie (meaning I quickly dumped my follow list as I personally knew none of the people I was following), and the rest is history.

Outrageous

This is classic hype: a article in VentureBeat this morning that exclaims in the most recent blown-out headline that Facebook may now be worth $100 billion (go look for it…I just couldnt bear to link). It was worth just $15 billion a few days ago, and only a billion a year ago. And nothing has changed for this enterprise other than the fact that they have many more users who either a) are too poor to turn advertising dollars spent into consumer purchases made or b) spend so much time on the internet that they are completely oblivious to any and all web advertising. That, or they’re like me…they have money to spend, but clean out their cookies with ever increasing frequency. The really sad part about this – nobody but the digeratti will ever even read it, and even if a major publication does pick up on it (like so many do nowadays), the general populous doesn’t care one iota. All it’s going to do is make them aware that they need to clean out their cookies more often!

I know why it was written – the author wanted some traffic – that traffic begets ad dollars. A ridiculous headline is a sure fire way to get there – write some complete bull about a system wholly dependent on advertising so you can get some advertising revenue yourself. Doesn’t seem like there is much value add to me.

I guess it’s fun for some, but…

I was bored with Facebook in about a day – to me it was AOL on steroids. I tired of Twitter in a few months – it’s useful but extremely distracting. MySpace…a bid childish. Meebo – neat, but isn’t “everywhere” IM access what phone-based apps are for? Tumblr – clean and simple, but so is a WordPress install. I could go on and on, but I don’t have much in the way of ads on this site.

How about showing me something that actually helps me get work done, makes me money, for goodness sakes…catches me more fish. Take some of these information technologies and point out how they apply to an industry sector I’m interested in – securities arbitrage, corporate-owned life insurance, distressed and/or hard-to-price assets, composites and extrusion, far-east import/export, or the promise of nuclear fusion reactors the size of air conditioning compressors. That would be innovation.

Gotta go…I’ve got a phone call (remember those?).

Has the M&A Market Hit Bottom?

From The Wall Street Journal:

With October ending in two days and the books closed on the final Merger Monday of the month today, it looks as if a rebound could be underway.

I imagine the rebound includes senior and sub financing term sheets that look like they’re from five years ago. In other words, either deal pricing has come down, or we’ll see a lot of bankruptcies in just a few years time (as if we won’t already).

Someone didn’t get the memo about daylight savings time

Maybe it’s just a cruel joke on me.

Last night at about 10:00 pm my Blackberry clock fell back an hour. I checked the time on the laptop, and sure enough it said eleven. At first I thought I’d wake up in the morning and the laptop would have changed, but this morning that hadn’t happened. Immediately, I blamed Apple and their updates, but as it turns out that’s not the case – Apple pushed updates long ago, and time isn’t supposed to change until next week.

[SinglePic not found] [SinglePic not found]The perpetrator is the Blackberry. I check my time settings, and found device time an hour behind network time. Strangely, however, my phone is set to update on network time, but an adjustment didn’t happen. Who do I charge that hour to? Eh…the dog doesn’t mind either way.

UPDATE: I wasn’t the only one.

Dream Stream Grand Slam

I don’t know if there is such a thing, but someone got one anyway.

[SinglePic not found]We hit the Dream Stream today, and spent up until 1:30 pm wishing we hadn’t dressed for a winter storm – the day started off cold and gray, and way too quickly moved to warm and cloudless. For me, things got more productive as the day progressed – the morning was a bust, started the afternoon with several dinks, then moved up to a few 12 to 14 inch rainbows. As the sun began its drop behind the mountains I was able to haul in a fat 21 inch brown on a leech to round things out (and no, she isn’t being crushed – she’d just been grabbed out of the net and was in the water a split second later).

The real news here, however, is about the grand slam! Todd Pepin picked up a Kokanee, a stout Brown, and a Pike…in a single outing. We were none too happy to find a pike in the river (they eat trout with reckless abandon), but Todd’s feat has to be recognized. I’m doing that here, where said recognition shall remain for eternity (or until the database gets corrupted).

dream-stream-kokanee dream-stream-brown dream-stream-pike

And last but certainly not least, we caught a lobster. Actually a crawfish, but it was about seven inches long and gunning for my finger when I was setting him up for the pic.