Michael Gracie

An eighteen month plus study into new ways to manage resources in the Everglades National Park watershed (emphasis: Florida Bay and the Gulf Coast from Ten Thousand Islands to Flamingo) has been completed, and alternatives are now on the table.

Propeller scarring on sea grass seems to be one of the (if not THE) major concern which led to the proposed usage changes:

I personally feel that anyone who scoots across less that a foot of water with their prop down has serious deficiencies in the mental department, and deserves to shear pins and be exempt from a tow. Pole your ass all the way home if you’re going to be that stupid. When you are on the water with professional guides, they are quick to point out the issue, and generally express the the same feeling I do. Navigable channels are already pretty well marked, and those tearing ass across the skinny aren’t doing much besides getting to their hot spot a minute earlier (and probably spooking a lot of fish by not throttling down sooner too).

Alternatives #3 (PDF) and #4 (PDF) of the proposal would significantly limit the accessibility of area to sportfishing, with some routes in and out of prime fishing zones almost obliterated from Tavenier to Layton (they’d be troll and pole only) under #4. Most of the restriction would be determined by water depth too, a barrier difficult (if not impossible) to enforce with the shifting tides. Either would have a huge impact on the local economies, which rely heavily on unabated use of the area.

Common to all proposals – essentially manage as is…

• Improve national park boundary marking, channel marking, and navigational aids including recommended channel network and transit corridors/routes in Florida Bay.
• Continue current management of Florida Bay keys; to protect nesting and rookery areas, all keys remain closed to recreational use except North Nest, Little Rabbit, Carl Ross, and Bradley keys.
• Establish a seagrass restoration program for submerged marine wilderness resources and sites/areas damaged by groundings and propeller scarring.
• Approach resource management from an ecosystem perspective, considering outside influences (e.g., Everglades restoration efforts, climate change, and socioeconomic considerations) on resources and ecosystem processes.

Also…implement the approved Flamingo Commercial Services Plan, including:

• Rebuilding Flamingo facilities — an elevated lodge, elevated cottages, ecotents, RV campground with electric hookups, houseboats, and two backcountry camping platforms or chickees in Florida Bay — in a sustainable manner.
• Provide increased education and recreational opportunities based out of Flamingo.
• Provide additional land- and water-based transportation options at Flamingo, including circulator shuttle, bicycles, canoes and kayaks, and land and water trails.
• Establish new, long-term concession contract for Flamingo.

Alternative #1 takes all the above into account – continued prudent management and some enhancement to facilities, but without further restrictions on use. I wouldn’t be opposed to adding some simple sea grass awareness and/or backcountry education requirement to the mix either – I don’t think USCG captains need it (at least not the ones I’ve hung around), but I’m certain a lot of other folks who venture into the area do. And while Alternative #2 does not add abhorrent navigation restrictions, it does implement a measure of pole/troll and/or paddle only zoning that I believe is going to be more trouble enforcing than it’s worth.

As far as I’m concerned, it’s all backcountry once you leave the dock. You shouldn’t set sail if you don’t know what you are doing, and I’m always going to be skeptical of any proposal that restricts the activities of many because of the mistakes of a few.

Man invented the four-stroke high output. But God invented the poling platform.

MG signing off (to hit the flats with the prop up)

Editor’s note: Thanks first to Tim ‘Fishman’ Emery for pointing this out a few days back. Also, the entire GMP/East Everglades Wildnerness Study is available here (big PDF). Review at your leisure, and please feel free to set me straight if I’ve missed anything here.

Pete McDonald follows up on the WSJ brownlining hoopla with some tasty tidbits out of the great state of Florida:

Before brownlining there was ditch fishing. The concept of casting flies in less than pristine settings goes back decades. In Florida, many well known fly fishing luminaries and pioneers cut their teeth fishing the Everglades and the vast network of man-made backwater canals that carve up the southern tier of the state.

It is well documented that anglers such as Flip Pallot, Chico Fernandez, and Norman Duncan–who invented the Duncan Loop (uni knot)–took to these unglamorous stretches in search of snook, baby tarpon, and largemouth bass on foot while growing up in South Florida in the 1950s.

It’s honest to goodness real journalism (which frankly makes me wonder how long Fishing Jones is really going to last) so read the whole thing before it’s copyright as part of some Hemingway memoir.

Technology

• Surprise – cyber-crooks are targeting Facebook. This is like shooting fish in a barrel, but Facebook participants won’t understand that until it’s too late. They are busy throwing up pages in a vain attempt to garner attention, and have to figure out that the barrel is already too big first.
• Speaking of social networks, you only have five core friends anyway. The rest are, I guess, ‘fake friends’.
• But if you still think you have more friends than that, Yahoo! is on their way to helping you stay caught up with them. It’s a collaboration with JS-Kit for access everywhere.

Finance

• Everyone who disagrees with the present administration’s economic policies is now evil, at least in the eyes of Paul Krugman. Greg Mankiw is willing to bet hard money that the GDP forecasts being floated to justify the massive spending are, for the most part, bunk. Will Vegas take side bets?
• The Fed is not only bailing out ‘unfortunate’ homeowners – now that third mortgages for widescreen TVs are passe, they are going to start funding credit card balances instead.
• And just in case anyone is still wondering where the financial world is headed, let’s ask the world’s presently most popular prognosticator, Nouriel Roubini: Mr. Roubini, what say ye? The U.S. financial system is effectively insolvent. Ok, got it.

Fly Fishing

• Science folks speculate that hunting trophies leads to smaller fish. There’s a lot of killing mentioned, which leads me to believe the studies may be funded by PETA. Meanwhile, down in the Keys, it’s long been known that the biggest bonefish reside in Islamorada specifically because so many trophy fish are released there during tournaments.
• Speaking of Florida, high-income earners aren’t the only one’s who may be seeing tax hikes. Guides have long had an exemption from sales tax, but the state legislature is discussing a change to that. Ron Brooks notes (correctly) that not only will guide/charter fishing rates go up, but the bookkeeping will add additional burden to an already very hard working group of folks.

And finally…

• The Roughfisher is ready for spring – it’s just that spring isn’t ready for him. Spring has been in and out of Colorado for weeks – we’d weep for the rough dude, but we’re too busy fishing. I’m not being spiteful, really I’m not.

Adieu.

From the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission :

Crocodile-human interactions have increased as the crocodile population has recovered. One technique to resolve these conflicts is translocation. This involves capturing the crocodile and moving it to suitable crocodile habitat as far away as possible, in an attempt to keep it away from an area. However, translocation is seldom effective. FWC biologists have found that translocated crocodiles will travel an average of 10 miles per week to return to their capture site, in a practice called “homing.” Others never make it because they are hit and killed by vehicles as they cross roads. Some may be killed by other crocodiles at the release site or during their journey back.

In an effort to break the “homing” cycle, FWC biologists have initiated a new study. Crocodile agents have been instructed to attach magnets to both sides of the crocodile’s head at the capture site. It is hoped the magnets will disorient the crocodiles and disrupt their navigation, so they can’t find their way back to the capture site. The magnets are removed from the crocodile’s head upon release. Agents will also secure a colored tag to the crocodile’s tail, so returning crocodiles can be identified later.

The reality is there is always some kind of toothy creature problem threatening the otherwise mundane lives of South Floridians – if it’s not the crocs, it’s the alligators, or snakes, or the sea trout (they are not actually a problem, unless you are low on flies). This is just one more example of the government not telling you like it is, as this intrepid reporter found out when he buzzed Flip Pallot for a statement:

No comment. But Gracie, you are a fine American.*

Something strange is afoot at the Circle K, and since fly fishers are the most grounded in the true nature of all things conspiratorial, I’m betting they smell a tourist trap. If you start seeing local fly guides advertising ‘Florida’s Ultimate Brownlining Adventure’ you’ll know they are working on a grant program.

Meanwhile, someone please send Pete McDonald some titanium hooks – he spends way too much time in those backwater canals for his own good. (h/t Slashdot)

Editor’s note: Half the quote from Flip Pallot was in fact taken from real life circumstances. While fishing Indian River, we bumped into him right after he’d been busted for speeding in a new Hell’s Bay skiff during a promotional shoot. Back at the takeout his trailer winch went on the fritz (guess it wasn’t his day), and we provided the tools to get ‘er back in business. Hence, we were deemed “fine Americans.”

And if that constitutes my fifteen minutes, I’m in deep trouble. Need. Better. Fishing. Stories!

Cheer and good tidings first; light reading last

• Charlie Crist calls for an investigation of “Florida’s subprime-tainted fund.” It’s really a SIV tainted fund and a sub-prime tainted SIV, but I’ll spare you the details. More on the Florida Fund fiasco here, here, and here.
• Research In Motion: no slowdown. Is it a consumer thing? Personally, I’m very happy with my Blackberry, although I consider it a business tool.
• Myspace. Facebook. Go Wordpress!? This may sound a little outlandish now, but the open source blogging application has the install base and the development community to really put a hurting on the “traditional” fare.
• A Home Price Heat Map, compliments of Stephen Heise. Data runs from 1975 to Q3-2007. Very interesting – hit the pause button along the way.
• A reminder: next time you look into that camera someone might be recording the color of your eyes, among other things.

Again, happy holidays!

At least in the US. Branches of Northern Rock were where the first official runs took place, but the Northern Rock is UK based. And this case isn’t exactly a bank, but it might as well be (particularly if you are a local government in Florida).

The State of Florida runs an investment pool for its local governing bodies, and that pool just so happened to toss a lot of cash into a structured investment vehicles. “Structured investment vehicle” is a fancy way of describing a pile of commercial paper with a few odds and ends thrown in to enhance returns. The odds and ends are generally all the paper nobody still breathing would buy for more than a nickel on the dollar if marketed to them directly. These structured investment vehicles have taken a nasty hit to their credit ratings, and true value is in question.

As a result, all those local governments are taking no chances – they are withdrawing their money in droves. By droves I mean the following: two weeks ago the fund had $27 billion in it – as of this morning, the tally stood at around $19 billion.

I’d call average capital withdrawals of 15% per week a…uh…run on the fricken bank. Of course, the state has to actually sell investments to generate the cash for all those withdrawals, and seeing as SIVs are getting bailed out by their proprietors (again, as nobody wants them), I suspect Florida is selling some of their assets at tidy losses.

There is a solution, so to speak, to all this…file the puppy:

Should the withdrawals continue, Florida’s pool may have to consider filing for bankruptcy protection, says John Coffee, a securities law professor at Columbia Law School in New York. “A bankruptcy could handle these kinds of problems if they feel they’ll become insolvent,” he said.

Mr. Coffee is spot on – filing will stave off the run, but it also means the funds would be frozen by the court until the matter is resolved. When it comes to financial assets resolution generally means orderly liquidation, or everyone sitting around with their thumbs up their behinds, simultaneously hoping the remaining assets rise in value and paying bankruptcy attorneys virtually every dime of any increase. In addition, any local governments that pulled their money out in the last few weeks might be forced to return it or suffer many preference payment lashings at the hands of the U.S. Bankruptcy Court. I can see them all buying twenty-year supplies of textbooks and container loads of new chalkboards right about now.

Meanwhile, I hadn’t reached the third paragraph of the news when I thought “who’s going to file the lawsuit, the state or the municipalities that don’t get out in time?” Who knows for sure, but the experts are presumptive:

Coffee predicts the pool will likely file lawsuits to recover losses. “I’d expect the pool is going to sue the people who sold them the commercial paper, saying the risks were hidden,” he said.

While the state bears some burden of doing their due diligence, there’s a pretty good chance the risks were hidden too. The finance industry has a nasty habit of overlooking needed disclosure when they’re trying to get the next, best, hot product out the door. I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest this case follows the rule rather than the exception, and even if it doesn’t there’s a pretty high likelihood lawsuits will be flying anyway…this is America we’re talking about after all.

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. sold Florida most of its now default-rated asset-backed commercial paper. Lehman spokesman Randall Whitestone declined to comment.

Declining to comment, particularly when said declination comes from a spokesperson (whose sole job it is to comment), can usually be interpreted as “We’re lawyering up, and will call you when counsel has blown through a few retainer checks.”

There are two concepts worth keeping in mind here: 1) Florida isn’t the only government that is having this problem – it’s just the first; and 2) I don’t own any Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc. common stock.

UPDATE: As of Thursday morning, the State fund has halted withdrawals, but not until after an additional $3 billion was pulled. Executive Director Coleman Stipanovich noted:

“There is no liquidity out there, there are no bids” for those securities.

Translation: the political damage from stemming the withdrawals is less than the losses that would otherwise be incurred from liquidation.

UPDATE 2: Participants in the Florida pool are now…what I’ll call “nicely demanding“…a hundred cents on the dollar for their deposits. You might also call this “wishful thinking.”

UPDATE 3: Having trouble paying teachers.

The Florida legislature is pushing through a measure that would….make false or misleading spam a crime. According to the local news report, Florida’s current law doesn’t include criminal penalties, and this latest bill would also allow civil recourse for victims and the state AG.

I am still waiting for some governmental body, someplace, to craft a “throw the book at them” law, instead of these piecemeal attempts that need annual reworking. Guess legislators need something to do each session, eh?

No doubt this is going to be fun. In the capital of spams and scams, the kingpins are preparing for the next wave – unleashing broad-based advertising to mobile phones.

An ISP in Clinton, Iowa just won an $11B judgement against some Florida spammers. That is a lot of pills and patches…too many.

I like the idea of “breaking the bank” of spammers, but I find this number a bit “irresponsible.” First, it is never going to get collected. Second, the enormity of the number is going to entice small ISPs everywhere to clog up the legal system looking for their take (think Mark Mumma, who we haven’t heard much from lately). A whole new legal practice industry is about to explode around spam lawsuits – I bet the keywords “spam+lawsuit” is already rising in price over at Google Adwords.

A number like $11 MILLION might have been more appropriate. At least it wouldn’t have attracted the soon to be unwanted attention.