Michael Gracie

Less than a week after Google rolled out Knol, its “Wikipedia killer”, the blogosphere has decided to whip itself into a frenzy. The major cause of the consternation - Google seems to be ranking Knol pages, which are supposed to be filled with content from a never-ending and every-increasing number of “experts”, a bit higher than the average SEO junkie might suspect.

Sounds like competition to me.

Is Google bad or is Google good? I don’t think the “experts” really know for sure, but I do see a pattern emerging. When blogs became popular, those working behind the scenes figured out that comments and trackbacks were a good way to generate search engine attention - and they latched onto the best ranked blogs. When the search engines figured this out, they appealed to the best of the best to add the “nofollow” tag to their discussion threads to weed out the scum. The big blogs agreed, I believe out of fear that Google would see discussions without the tag and bump down the renegades accordingly. All was well, as the favored few remained high on the first page list.

Unfortunately, content creators are now coming under increasing stress. The sole business motive, advertising, is showing signs of weakness. Purveyors of online expertise are crying for folks to click on their ads - they ask “why give the money to Google?”. Meanwhile, they beg at Google’s feet for traffic - it’s the proverbial biting of the hand that feeds you.

What’s even more odd about all this, and what would clue the average internet surfer into how badly the tech blogosphere needs a twenty-ton dose of Ritalin, is that the crowd waited until the day after they pounced on Cuil, a potential Google search competitor, before releasing their joint statement on the evil Knol. Yes, after giving a well-publicized Google search competitor a general thumbs neutral/negative (not entirely unearned, since Cuil had major technical problems on the day of its launch) the virtual chatterbox moves on to complain about the fact that Google might be infringing on their territory by juicing its own search results with competitive content.

Instead of recognizing the the signs of an impending threat and rallying behind the future generation, content creators are playing cards for the small pot instead of the final table. To be fair, some have a clue - seek alternatives and take action instead of pissing in the wind. Still, discussion revolves around quick fixes.

Budding surgeons don’t pass their boards by suggesting band-aids for severed femoral arteries, and it seems much of the tech blogosphere forgot their hemostats on this trip to the operating room.

Cuil, the latest “Google killer”…

• Google wins, but Cuil is just a few hours old (Techcrunch)
• Cuil is dark, mysterious, and somewhat innovative, but Google is still better (Mashable)
• Google is paying attention, with a preemptive strike on Cuil’s size claim (Search Engine Land
• Despite an early stumble, the search market is too big to quit on (Silicon Alley Insider)

Cuil is getting a lot of coverage - it’s on the front page of Drudge too…

It makes me think that the long standing love affair with the Google brand is fading (or has already faded). That, or folks need something to write about on a Monday morning and Cuil has a good PR team.

In the long run, I suspect the mainsteam is going to catch the buzz and type “COOL” dot com into their browsers, much to a domain squatter’s pleasure. But I don’t think that is going to matter - Cuil launched today, but that doesn’t mean it was created yesterday, nor were it’s founders or funders born yesterday either. The company was founded in ‘05, and has garnered roughly $33 million over two rounds of funding (data here). Add the recent acquisition of Powerset (who itself had just launched) by Microsoft, and one could surmise Cuil won’t be independent very long.

With Google pushing into the content space with Knol, I’d be placing my bet on the flip-side - a traditional content producer (think major media) pushing back.

UPDATE: Fair is fair…ReadWriteWeb chimes in - Cuil is good, but not great.

UPDATE 2: Still more, from Forbes (including how Cuil got started).

Read more »

Opinions of those in the know

Google released its “Wikipedia killer” Knol into the wild. I don’t create content on Wikipedia (although I do consume some of it). So leave it to the experts…

• The owner makes an announcement
• TechCrunch says its Wikipedia for money;
• ReadWriteWeb emphasizes authorship;
• Search Engine Land talks moderation;
• Mashable declares it’s Squidoo II;

and

• Silicon Alley Insider justifiably mocks its coverage of toilets.

The rest is up to you.

UPDATE: One apparent advantage of Knol…owning it.

Whose estimates are we talking about?

Google’s second quarter earnings fell short of Wall Street estimates, and by Friday’s end the stock had fallen almost 10%. The reaction…

• The New York Times says Google’s miss was deliberate, and they’ve now “gone too far” (i.e. someone’s pointing fingers - no surprise there)
• Om Malik says Silicon Valley has reason to worry (he probably has a good point nonetheless)

and

• Henry Blodget outs another nutbag fund manager who’s touting a $1,000 price target (while buying all the way down at the expense of his investors)

Meanwhile, some are calling it a “rare miss” and others say it wasn’t a miss at all. I wonder.

All the fiddling with “charges” aside, according to the consensus estimates retrieved from Bloomberg some months ago, Google hasn’t hit “the numbers” in a while:

What’s the big deal?

Hell = golf course

From betting on the game when the other team doesn’t show…
• Bridgewater Associates say financial losses from the credit meltdown will hit $1.6 trillion. That means we’re just a few pitches into the second inning in this mess. (h/t Paul Kedrosky)
• In 2008, autumn seems to be coming early (and looking a lot like 1987). I’ve mentioned this already.
• Retailers won’t be able to hide rising prices in the revenue line forever - consumer spending is invariably linked to the housing market. (h/t Calculated Risk)

From pointing fingers is old hat, and old hats fit nicer than new ones…

• European politicians are conflicted over how to deal with bloggers. Might I suggest they send a patsy to quiet them down?
• Some social networks are having trouble monetizing their traffic. Forget the problem of short attention spans amongst teenagers - blame Google.
• Global warming hysteria has a new friend, the plasma TVs everyone bought with their second mortgage loan.

And from technology is my oyster, now give it a sniff before you eat it…

• How does a thriving technology company morph itself into General Motors? Become extremely bureaucratic about minutia. ADDED: Make sure that minutia is completely irrelevant too.
• Voicemail is dead. I agree, not because of fabulous web services, but something much simpler - caller id and internal phone contact lists.
• Email is in trouble too? I’ll agree with that as well, but not because of the newfangled services that exist today. Too few people are ever going to want their communication publicized, and too many are shifting platforms for Outlook to be a long term handicap. Someone is going to rise to the occasion for the mainstream user.