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	<title>Michael Gracie &#187; analyst estimates</title>
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	<link>http://michaelgracie.com</link>
	<description>Clever Tagline Unavailable At Publication Time</description>
	<pubDate>Tue, 02 Dec 2008 16:21:07 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>Google misses earnings for first time ever!?</title>
		<link>http://michaelgracie.com/2008/07/19/google-misses-earnings-for-first-time-ever/</link>
		<comments>http://michaelgracie.com/2008/07/19/google-misses-earnings-for-first-time-ever/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 20 Jul 2008 00:30:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Gracie</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Office]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[analyst estimates]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[earnings]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Google]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://michaelgracie.com/?p=2300</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Whose estimates are we talking about?
Google&#8217;s second quarter earnings fell short of Wall Street estimates, and by Friday&#8217;s end the stock had fallen almost 10%.  The reaction&#8230;

The New York Times says Google&#8217;s miss was deliberate, and they&#8217;ve now &#8220;gone too far&#8221; (i.e. someone&#8217;s pointing fingers - no surprise there)
Om Malik says Silicon Valley has [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<!-- sphereit start --><p><em>Whose estimates are we talking about?</em></p>
<p>Google&#8217;s second quarter earnings <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/25722987">fell short</a> of Wall Street estimates, and by Friday&#8217;s end the stock had fallen almost 10%.  The reaction&#8230;</p>
<ul>
<li>The New York Times says Google&#8217;s <a href="http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/17/google-deliberately-sells-fewer-ads-and-may-have-gone-too-far/">miss was deliberate</a>, and they&#8217;ve now &#8220;gone too far&#8221; (i.e. someone&#8217;s pointing fingers - no surprise there)</li>
<li>Om Malik says <a href="http://gigaom.com/2008/07/17/why-silicon-valley-should-be-worried/">Silicon Valley has reason to worry</a> (he probably has a good point nonetheless)</li>
<p>and</p>
<li>Henry Blodget outs another <a href="http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/7/google-goog-worth-950-1-050-says-nutbag-fund-manager">nutbag fund manager</a> who&#8217;s touting a $1,000 price target (while buying all the way down at the expense of his investors)</li>
</ul>
<p>Meanwhile, some are calling it a &#8220;<a href="http://www.crn.com/it-channel/209100827">rare miss</a>&#8221; and others say it <a href="http://blogs.ft.com/techblog/2008/07/google-what-earnings-shortfall/">wasn&#8217;t a miss at all</a>.  I wonder.</p>
<p>All the fiddling with &#8220;charges&#8221; aside, according to the consensus estimates retrieved from Bloomberg some months ago, Google hasn&#8217;t hit &#8220;the numbers&#8221; in a while:</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a class="tt-flickr tt-flickr-Medium" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/michaelgracie/2682918402/"><img class="aligncenter" src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3166/2682918402_1bf68c87b9.jpg" border="0" alt="Google Consensus Estimates" width="500" height="146" /></a> </p>
<p>What&#8217;s the big deal?</p>
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		<item>
		<title>&#8220;Backing into the numbers&#8221;</title>
		<link>http://michaelgracie.com/2007/08/24/backing-into-the-numbers/</link>
		<comments>http://michaelgracie.com/2007/08/24/backing-into-the-numbers/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Aug 2007 18:47:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Gracie</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Office]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[analyst estimates]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Mary Meeker]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[YouTube]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://michaelgracie.com/2007/08/24/backing-into-the-numbers/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[To few numbers, me says.  You have to inundate in order to confuse.
YouTube was about to make Google a extra 3/4 of a billion in net revenue, but the analyst&#8217;s estimate was off by a factor of 1,000.  Now Mary Meeker &#38; Co. have corrected their minuscule error, and changed the assumptions so [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<!-- sphereit start --><p><em>To few numbers, me says.  You have to inundate in order to confuse.</em></p>
<p>YouTube was about to make Google a extra 3/4 of a billion in net revenue, but <a href="http://www.alleyinsider.com/files/GOOG082307QCV1_1_.pdf">the analyst&#8217;s estimate</a> was off by a factor of 1,000.  Now Mary Meeker &amp; Co. have corrected their minuscule error, <a href="http://www.alleyinsider.com/2007/08/mary-meeker-bac.html">and changed the assumptions</a> so they don&#8217;t wind up with a minuscule result.</p>
<p>Does this mean <a href="http://michaelgracie.com/2007/08/01/yahoo-needs-a-social-networking-strategy-says-bear-stearns-sees-facebook-worth-5b-6b/">Bear Stearn&#8217;s estimate of Facebook&#8217;s value</a> is really five to six million?</p>
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