Michael Gracie 

I’m not going to jail for trading in Novell. In fact, I’m not going to trial, there will be no indictment…hell, I’m not even going to be investigated. Several years ago I identified Novell as a buyout target. I will not go into my reasoning, but let’s just say I did so before it actually [...]

I don’t even like the guy, but I can’t argue with what he’s saying.

The public has been told all their lives to invest. Sock that money away – put it into the market. For the long term. Save dividends, which are now being whacked hard, long-term equity investors have little to show for their efforts over the last twelve years. Throw volatility into the mix, and you might [...]

The market news piece of the day is that the S&P 500 has (YTD) outperformed the once explosive BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China). Folks everywhere are saying “See, it’s not so bad” and touting the fact that the U.S. is the “least loser” etc. etc. I don’t think that is the real story here. [...]

The open question is why? The consistent sound bite seems to be “the housing boom that began in 2001…as a result of subprime mortgages”. Even today, Paul Krugman gives cover to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac while trying to pin the problem on sub-prime post-millenia. It’s hogwash. As the chart below shows, the boom really [...]

I only shrug and nod compliantly when tech folks say the housing debacle, the credit crunch, the equity market gyrations, and other macroeconomic factors those very same tech folks proudly proclaim their ignorance of, does not effect them. It does. And it will continue to do so.

The PR hacks say another 4% decline in the S&P fully prices in a recession. Time to watch out below?

Sticking to hard data, this morning’s Fed Funds rate cut of 75 basis points was the deepest on record. Who’s record? The Feds own record, dating back to 1971. Note that there are several occasions where the Fed raised rates (either the discount or fed funds) by 3/4 of one percent: the summer of ’73, [...]