Barry Ritholtz:

The Pending Home Sales Index is down 12.3%. According the the NAR’s statement about the PHSI, that is a negative for the next two months. While their press release emphasizes the 5.3% monthly gain in June, we have demonstrated in the past why that amount to little more than the usual seasonality, as families who are moving try to get into the new homes before the new school year starts.

Most people only read the headlines. If you point out the error, you’re labeled a “Negative Nellie” - but it’s the perfect sign that you are facing someone who lacks even a modicum of intelligence - the attacker is refusing to process any logic because they have reached the crescendo of denial.

While these NAR jokers having been calling bottoms in perpetuity, real estate brokers are likely so distressed about the situation that even they aren’t going to get pissed off about it anymore.

UPDATE: Follow up by Ritholtz…the media was either completely duped, or they’re all about to get foreclosed on so they’re collaborating with the NAR to dupe someone else.

Linkfest Link Barrage Tidbits on real estate and oil, since this last weekend was about sun and fun (at least around here).

• After reporting homes sales were up 4% in New Jersey for the first quarter, the NAR decided that was a tad too optimistic. Revised first quarter…down 30%. As it turns out, a member agent pointed out the error of the NJ faction’s ways. I told you agents were getting pissed.
• The Washington Post is running a three-part series on the housing meltdown, just in case real estate agents, homeowners, investors, etc. still believe the NAR propaganda (i.e. it’s all the press’s fault).
• Countrywide’s Congressional Mortgage Discount Club does not exist. Any thinking to the contrary is “outrageous.”
• David Merkel hands out a few notes on crude oil. Up front, and of particular interest, is the rail against government action to discouraging speculation. Mentioned previously.
• The whole oil mess might be a non-issue anyway - scientists have discovered bacteria that eat garbage and “poop” oil. Will the debate over abiotic oil heat up from here?
• Peak oil or no peak oil, Donald Rumsfeld isn’t waiting around to find out. He bought a Vespa.

Adieu.

I’m not sure if The Associated Press is now a subsidiary of the National Association of Realtors, but their headlines sure make them seem that way…

Home sales unexpectedly rise in April :

Sales of new homes rose in April for the first time in six months although the unexpected increase still left activity near the lowest level in 17 years.

The headline should have said…

“Home sales ‘unexpectedly’ revised downward for March so April’s look much better, and we hope the NAR will stop telling their members that the housing decline is entirely the fault of the press”

The downward revision / “this month’s great” game has been going on for some time.

UPDATE: Even easier - New Home Sales Fall 42%.

Barry Ritholtz, what say ye?

How else can you explain their shameless twisting of their own data? Don’t these damn fools realize that they have simply lost all credibility? I have heard more than a few Real Estate agents complain that sellers have unrealistic expectations of prices, due in large part to the ongoing and ridiculous bottom calls and turnaround forecast form the NAR.

Yep, agents are bitching.

Realtor spin, in chart form (and with lovely footnotes).

(h/t to The Big Picture)

Barry Ritholtz of The Big Picture, on the National Association of Realtors…

My apologies for lumping in the Realtor’s group with drug abusers. In doing so, I meant no insult to the crackheads of the world…

Heh.

More “Narbage”

Talk about an understatement. The “slippage” the NAR refers to was a 23.4% year-over-year freefall. The term “slip” might not adequately capture the data. Plummet, plunge, nose-dive, crash, tumble or freefall might work. But “Slip?” Gee, that doesn’t quite capture the true essence of the data…

- Barry Ritholtz

Richard Gaylord sounds like a real estate get rich quick infomercial.

The sad part is, few if any that listen to the NAR’s advice are getting rich. While Gaylord touts boldfaced lies scripted to lure ill-informed purchasers into borrowing beyond their means research from within his “organization” (which has been wrong without recourse for two years running), many people are getting kicked out of their formerly extraordinarily over-valued homes and/or filing for bankruptcy.

I’ll state once again for the record:

THE NAR DOES NOT CARE IF YOU BUILD WEALTH FROM OWNING REAL ESTATE. ALL THEY CARE ABOUT ARE TRANSACTIONS, NOT SMART, STABLE HOMEOWNERSHIP.

Sadly, I have a few friends who are real estate agents, and while they won’t go on record they know the NAR is not doing them any favors. The NAR’s asinine irrational exuberance appeals to existing homeowners, particularly those who are upside down on their mortgages. Those folks hold out hope based on the NAR’s propaganda research while the market stays frozen for lack of price flexibility.

Simply pathetic.

Nobody should care about this except the National Association of Realtors, who sole purpose is to promote transactions (not smart, stable homeownership).

Mortgage rates are also dropping, making homes more affordable to those able to get financing. The Realtors group’s affordability index in November and October was at the highest level in more than two years.

What nobody will tell you is that the affordability index is likely barely off it’s lows, measured over say seven to ten years. They also won’t tell you that while new home sales contracts are a leading indicator of economic viability, they don’t actually revise the contract number when folks aren’t able to get financing and the deal falls through.

Hilarious (for some). Amazon reviews are either incredulous, or smell like complete shills.

I wonder if Lawrence Yu, Lereah’s predecessor, will follow him up with “How To Impress Your Friends In Good Times And Bad,” (with a pullout on negotiating the US Bankruptcy Court system)?

UPDATE: Meanwhile, here’s a summary of the NAR’s “predictions” over the last year. FTC indictment, anyone, anyone?