Sick of hearing about it, or waiting until after the fact

Mark Hopkins of Mashable does a pretty good job of railing against the pundits here. And his definition of recession is certainly correct - two successive quarters of GDP decline. However, I believe that a lot of the chatter being heard is a reflection of the speed in which information is now flowing, and those in the middle’s desire to define the state the economy is in before the government releases GDP figures for two quarters in succession.

Ask yourself these questions: If the US does experience two quarters of successive GDP decline, are you in recession on the first day of the first quarter of that decline? And if the quarter subsequent to the previous two shows growth, are you out of recession on the first day of that?

Under the above circumstances, and using the word “recession” in its strictly defined manner, the only thing a person would ever be able to say is…”We were in a recession.”

By then, the fun would be over.

UPDATE: Via Forbes:

Surprising new GDP numbers show the economy is growing, albeit slowly. Your move, Ben.

Maybe that should be “Surprising new GDP numbers show the economy was growing, and nominally.” Of course, you can still throw in the “your move, Ben” part, because it seems that with a stagnating economy and skyrocketing prices for staples, the Fed Chairman has few moves left.

UPDATE 2: Aptly put (emphasis mine):

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reports that the U.S. economy grew at a 0.6% annual real rate in Q1 2008, mostly because of a buildup in inventories. Without the unwanted buildup in inventory, GDP would have been negative, suggesting the economy is in recession.

Llew Claasen debunks a growing myth:

Declining Paid Search ad click-through rates and site conversion rates during an economic downturn, together reduce the revenue per impression that Google earns (and consequently reduces its overall revenue) and there is precious little that Google can do about it. 

The marginal cost of delivering a single impression is near zero (i.e. the cost of delivering all impressions is essentially fixed).  Right?

Good advice…keep working.

Of course, the Congressional Budget Office now says there won’t be a recession, and despite the fact that their report’s “no expectation” assessment included a caveat that economic conditions could change on a dime, you should have nothing to worry about.

Here’s a dreary outlook, before today’s payrolls report: U.S. Employment Probably Slowed in October as Housing Slumped.

And the story, immediately thereafter: Jobs in U.S. Increase by 166,000, Signaling Economy Will Avoid Recession.

Among the confusing statements:

Service industries, which include banks, insurance companies, restaurants and retailers, added 190,000 workers last month after gaining 127,000 jobs in September. Retailers cut 21,500 jobs after eliminating 12,300 in September.

While service industries, which includes retailers, grew payrolls, retailers (those “servicing” the all important consumer spending) cut them.

I wonder what the outcome would be if everyone set expectations and kept them in a sealed manilla envelope until after the Labor Department released their numbers. No matter, the markets didn’t like the “rosy” report anyway.

UPDATE: More.