Frog or fungus – are Blue Frog’s numbers for real?

Any time a company completely falls on its face, the pundits are going to say “I told you so.” After all, the naysayers can’t be right until after the dominos tumble, now can they?

In the case of Blue Frog, shit certainly seems to have hit the fan, so it comes as no surprise that negative talk would abound. In the case of TQM’s analysis of Blue Security, however, it seems there are some numbers to back up the scepticism.

While I don’t agree with the pre-formed conclusion regarding Blue Frog’s IPO aspirations, the writeup is interesting. On the IPO issue, any company going pubic with numbers that are difficult to tie out doesn’t stand much of a chance nowadays – it isn’t 1999 anymore. The fact that the whole Blue Security process was deemed questionable from the start, including by your’s truly, makes the possibility of a pubic offering difficult to imagine. The fact that it is a small, one product/service company in a market for which there are numerous competing products offered by diversified security providers, is just another broken staple in the red herring.

Comments

Well, in case of Blue Frog, I’d rather say “thank the spammers for all the publicity”. Blue Frog gained a lot of users thanks to the attack, and the company is nowhere close to falling on its face. Quite the opposite, it may be criticized by some (improperly, in my opinion, in most cases criticism is caused by the criticizing party being unable to read properly), but it has awakened curiousity in many. Just notice, when was the last time some antispam solution was so notoriously attacked by the spammers? Well, excluding a couple of RBLs, I don’t remember any such case. And this means that something has finally pissed the spammers off, which seems a good reason to try to use it (to piss them off even more, so they finally go away).

Blue Security was not ready for such a massive attack, but now they are (thanks to Prolexic). And they were not DDoSed (at least according to their official statement, and pure logic as well) when they redirected their site to the blog (or else the blog wouldn’t function and there wouldn’t be >100 comments on it).

The BS blog was hosted at TypePad. The blog not only was down, but so was the rest of SixApart. Hardly an example of “functioning.” The fact that it may be running now, and have comments on it, now, doesn’t mean that it, and the rest of SixApart, wasn’t dead in the water last week.

Bart Schaefer says:

Based on the timeline posted at the Spam Diaries, it sounds as if the DDoS didn’t begin until after Blue redirected their home page to the blog; prior to that they were being null-routed. So they may not be quite as inept as they initially appeared.

http://thespamdiaries.blogspot.com/2006/05/details-of-blue-security-attack.html

If so, then I have to ask why they chose to redirect the traffic to their blog in the first place. Here is Blue Security’s answer – it shines additional light on the timeline, but not necessarily any aptitude or forethought. If I was being attacked, I’d be thinking “what are they going to throw at me next” instead of “is that all they’ve got.”

Bart Schaefer says:

Yeah, and other analysis suggests their answer is pretty fishy, too. I’m going to have to stop giving them the benefit of the doubt.

http://taint.org/2006/05/09/111828a.html

David Hart says:

14 May, 2006: About that Depressed Froggie

A week has expired since the critical analysis. The intention was to update the statistical calculations this morning. However, the nice folks at Blue Frog seem to have removed that reference page from their web site. Last Monday, I emailed many of the "experts" who provided positive reviews on the web site with a request for counter-point. None have responded.

David Hart says:

Blue Frog Has Croaked.

Class act. No notice and now the website is toast (no DNS). Earlier today a notice on the site blamed the DDoS for their demise. A week ago they claimed triumph.

My guess is that they were running low on money and research determined that not enough people were willing to actually pay for the amphibian to make the business model viable. Just this week, they were hiring sales reps according to their now defunct web site.

Some say RIP. I say DNR.

Spamroll says:

Did someone step on Blue Frog?

According to a comment from David Hart of TQMcube.com, Blue Security is no longer. Maybe they are just hopping around, looking for a new host, or maybe they have the early summer blues…or maybe I am not very funny and…

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