While everyone frets about the latest jobs report, maybe there is a silver lining in those clouds…
- From Economics 101 we learned that fewer jobs means slower inflation;
- The early 2007 dollar cliff dive exacerbated consumer price gyrations, but oil prices are now trading near a five-month low;
- Foreign markets in developing countries are performing dismally (meaning fleeting capital for spending there);
- Imports are showing signs of slowing, further punishing those overseas.
Throw out decoupling theory…
and…
There is considerable softening in housing demand (as well as abundant inventory) in developed countries, meaning both shrinking need for raw materials there and some additional demand decline as a result of diminished perception of wealth.
Could the world deflate it’s way out of a financial crisis? Don’t know, but at the minimum I’m having a harder time seeing a case for the continued price spirals we’ve become accustomed to.