Tag: Alan Greenspan

Best weekend reading I didn’t do

Let’s be honest – if you read beyond the catchy headlines you’d never get the grass mowed

Alan Greenspan on risk

Denial and insanity are next door neighbors

Via FT:

We will never be able to anticipate all discontinuities in financial markets. Discontinuities are, of necessity, a surprise. Anticipated events are arbitraged away. But if, as I strongly suspect, periods of euphoria are very difficult to suppress as they build, they will not collapse until the speculative fever breaks on its own.

Mr. Greenspan left out a very important point…the one about him touting the merits of adjustable-rate mortgages at the peak of the “euphoria.”

Bailing out your neighbor

Alan Greenspan is now promoting a direct taxpayer-funded bailout of homeowners. Mr. Greenspan has been trying very hard to shift blame for the mortgage crisis, but this statement takes the cake. Begging for increased Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and FHA limits serves much the same purpose. It’s socializing losses.

Be forewarned – a direction is being drawn. A 600 FICO score and a pile of credit card debt is no problem – you are hereby authorized to sign any borrowing agreement you can get your hands on. You won’t need to return that widescreen TV that’s now a part of your HELOC. That leased car you’ve already missed two payments on? It’s yours – just keep it.

It’s not a liquidity issue, or one of solvency. It’s a government problem.

A solution for your debt overindulgence is close at hand – you’re neighbor will soon be bailing you out.

UPDATE: More support for subsidies, at the high end of the market. The high end hasn’t started getting whacked, yet.

UPDATE 2: Yet more on neighbors, including how some are being hurt by the questionable decisions of others.

UPDATE 3: And back to blaming the Fed.

The Roots of the Mortgage Crisis (just got burned early)

Just because you stop throwing fuel on a fire doesn’t mean the flames are going to immediately burn out.

While Alan Greenspan speaks:

I do not doubt that a low U.S. federal-funds rate in response to the dot-com crash, and especially the 1% rate set in mid-2003 to counter potential deflation, lowered interest rates on adjustable-rate mortgages and may have contributed to the rise in U.S. home prices. In my judgment, however, the impact on demand for homes financed with ARMs was not major.

Demand in those days was driven by the expectation of rising prices–the dynamic that fuels most asset-price bubbles. If low adjustable-rate financing had not been available, most of the demand would have been financed with fixed rate, long-term mortgages. In fact, home prices continued to rise for two years subsequent to the peak of ARM originations

…everyone should keep in mind that Chairman Greenspan was publicly extolling the virtue of using adjustable rate mortgages even as things started looking awry.

UPDATE: Paul Kedrosky meets Mr. NotMe. Don’t worry, it was “not major.”